It’s once again the time of year where I aim to put my reputation on the line to predict the big winners in each Feature Film Oscars category.
With voting now closed ahead of the ceremony on Sunday, 2nd March, the Academy have had their final say on the best films of the previous year – and after getting 20 out of a possible 24 categories right last time around (Best Actress, Best Animated Feature, Best Live Action Short and Best Animated Short were my only bad calls), pressure is building for me to improve on my final score. It’s even more anticipated in Hollywood than what film is named in the Best Picture envelope, or at least I’d like to think, anyway.
This year’s awards season has been anything but predictable, with several shake ups in the race since the nominations announcement, not to mention some of the wildest controversies in all my years paying attention to the awards race. This means that my bets are less secure than usual, and I’ll be making some big swings below, explaining why each of my predictions will be taking home the gold in their respective categories.
My hope is that, even if I’m wrong, I’ll at least make a convincing argument I won’t be embarrassed by if the Academy goes in a different direction than expected. As I’m skipping the shorts categories this year – the animated nominees are largely unavailable for consumption in the UK, making an informed decision a lot harder – I can at least aim for a higher proportional result.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees; Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
What will win; Dune: Part Two
In 2022, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune was nominated for ten Oscars and won six, all in the craft categories. When Part Two was released last March, it was coronated the early awards season frontrunner, as well as a dead cert to secure the Best Director nom Villeneuve was snubbed for last time around – and whilst it still picked up several nominations, it began losing steam the second other films came into the ring, such is the curse of being the first “frontrunner” to screen.
Part Two won’t be able to replicate its predecessor’s awards haul – it missed nominations in several categories that won outright – but it won’t be going home empty handed by any stretch. With several visual effects wins already in the bag, a repeat victory in this category is likely; in what seemed like a golden cinematic year for CGI monkeys, none of the three ape-centric sagas nominated will be able to defeat it.
Best Film Editing
Nominees; Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
What will win; Anora
Best Editing is currently a two-horse race between the backstabbing Cardinal soap opera of Conclave and the X-rated screwball comedy of Anora – but with director Sean Baker editing the latter himself, discussing his process extensively in interviews, it has a far more enticing narrative to sway voters than Conclave does.
With Anora re-emerging as a frontrunner following its Golden Globes shutout, with Best Picture wins from the Critics’ Choice Awards and Producers’ Guild – both important precursors in the race – voters will be looking for other places to award it. At Critics Choice, it won Best Picture and nothing else; it seems unlikely Baker will be left on the edge of his seat all evening awaiting his first win here.
Best Costume Design
Nominees; A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
What will win; Wicked
Complain all you like about Elphaba and Galinda not wearing the required school uniforms every other student at Shiz has to, this creative decision helps refocus attention on Wicked’s costume choices in a way no other film in the race does. Add into the mix the fact fantasy films are often as safe a bet as period pieces in this category, and you’ve got yourself one of the night’s safest winners.
Best Make-Up & Hairstyling
Nominees; A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
What will win; The Substance
In a just world, a horror movie would take home the Best Make-Up & Hairstyling Oscar every year, but genre bias means even the most obvious achievements in creature creation go unheralded in favour of biopic transformations. And whilst we would argue it’s a dark comedy, not a horror, The Substance’s utilisation of body horror tropes would still give the genre a long-deserved victory in this category.
With ageing in Hollywood, and anxieties surrounding physical appearances, being the topics satirised here, a make-up win would also help reflect the Academy’s belief (based on its several nominations) that it successfully skewers its subject matter.
Best Cinematography
Nominees; The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
What will win; The Brutalist
The Brutalist made headlines as the first film since 1963 to be shot entirely with a VistaVision camera, a long defunct technology used for shooting epic films in widescreen 35mm – now considered an early precursor to the modern IMAX camera. It helps give the low-budget character drama a grander scope and is perhaps the sole reason why many were shocked to learn that the budget was approximately $6 million, which is closer to the catering budget on the average Marvel production.
The Academy love awarding films shot on celluloid in the digital era – see Oppenheimer’s win in this category last year for further evidence – and for an independent film to have done this whilst squeezing the purse strings is an achievement that won’t go unrecognised.
Best Production Design
Nominees; The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
What will win; Wicked
Previously, I would have predicted The Brutalist’s architectural triumphs, brought to life on that surprisingly paltry budget, to lock in a win here too, but the revelation that AI was used as a reference point for many of the designs seen in the film’s epilogue has made that less of a safe bet.
Instead, the Academy will be looking back to the most recurrently successful mode of filmmaking in this category; the epic-scale blockbuster, and the triumph of bringing a modernised Emerald City to life on soundstages is the likeliest victor, bringing Wicked’s total of below-the-line wins to two.
Best Sound
Nominees; A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
What will win; Dune: Part Two
As with its predecessor, distorted vocals reintroduce us to the tale of Paul Atreides before the Warner Bros. logo even appears onscreen, a statement of intent for the abrasive, hypnotic soundscapes Denis Villeneuve brings to life on Arrakis. It’s something of a myth that music-driven films triumph here, and with three in the mix this year, it makes it all the likelier that vote splitting clears the path for the Dune franchise to secure its second Sound win.
Best Original Song
Nominees; El Mal – Emilia Pérez, The Journey – The Six Triple Eight, Like a Bird – Sing Sing, Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez, Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late
What will win; The Journey – The Six Triple Eight
One of my boldest predictions is that Emilia Pérez – which, with 13 nominations, was just one shy of tying for the all-time record – will lose most of its categories. Even before star Karla Sofia Gascón’s litany of pandemic-era racist tweets were rediscovered, it had the not insignificant issues of being accused of racism by Mexican and Latin American viewers, transphobia by LGBTQ viewers, and generally poor reception by most regular viewers, if its IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes and Letterboxd user scores are anything to go by.
This is why I’m predicting it’ll lose both of its Original Song nominations to another, even more underseen Netflix film; The Six Triple Eight. The film itself is irrelevant, as this is the annual vehicle for songwriter Diane Warren, one of the most famous awards losers in history – this is her 16th nomination in the category, and if they want to finally give the gold to this perennial underdog, then there’s no better year for them to do it.
Best Original Score
Nominees; The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
What will win; The Brutalist
The Brutalist is dedicated to the memory of Scott Walker, the influential musician who composed the scores for director Brady Corbet’s two prior films. Daniel Blumberg effectively steps into his shoes here, creating similarly evocative soundscapes using period appropriate instruments – and with his opening overture spanning the first ten minutes of Corbet’s epic, it’s a crucial component in getting you into its classicist headspace.
On a side note, song titles on the soundtrack album include Porn and Handjob, and you’d be lying if you said you didn’t want the Academy to recognise this.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees; Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane
What will win; No Other Land
Even setting aside the urgency of No Other Land, 2024’s most awarded documentary, it has a narrative which positions it as an underdog despite its frontrunner status. Left without a distributor in the US as the year wound down, producers were left with no choice but to self-fund a qualifying theatrical run to ensure their film would be seen.
Considering the prescience of what the movie depicts, the filmmakers’ fight to get this story out there only increases the importance of ensuring it makes it to the winner’s podium.
Best International Feature
Nominees; Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl With The Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
What will win; I’m Still Here
No film has ever been nominated for Best Picture and Best International Feature and lost the latter category; this year, it will be Emilia Pérez, and not the surprise BP nominee I’m Still Here, that unfortunately makes history in this regard. Although it only has three nominations including this one, the Brazilian drama has only seen its momentum grow in the weeks since star Fernanda Torres won the Golden Globe for Best Actress, a shock win that put the movie on a lot of people’s radars – and with more liberal minded voters likely to see parallels with Trump’s America, it’ll be the one they’re most inclined to vote for.
It’s a repeat of the surprise victory for Iranian drama The Salesman in this category back in 2017; a fine film, but one which arguably only overcame frontrunner Toni Erdmann as the topicality of Trump’s travel ban was making headlines during the voting period. It’s no stretch to think a similar upset win will happen this year.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees; Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
What will win; Flow
After spending months as the presumed victor, Dreamworks’ The Wild Robot was unexpectedly beat by Latvian indie animation Flow – a dialogue free dystopian tale about a ragtag group of animals navigating a climate catastrophe – for the Golden Globe, upending the race entirely. I suspect it will maintain its momentum here, although if Wallace & Gromit’s latest adventure picked up last minute votes following its BAFTA win, I wouldn’t complain – alas, I feel that only triumphed there due to a British advantage.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees; A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
What will win; Conclave
One of the safest bets of the night, Peter Straughan’s script for director Edward Berger's Conclave has been racking up screenplay awards all season long, and its streak will naturally culminate in an Academy Award. If nothing else, the juicy Vatican thriller deserves plaudits for becoming a surprise word-of-mouth hit with Gen Z, its tale of papal backstabbing translating surprisingly well to a young audience hungry for The Traitors, Big Brother, and many other twisty, manipulative reality series.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees; Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
What will win;Anora
As mentioned above, at the recent Critics Choice awards, Anora won Best Picture and nothing else – and while I don’t think it’ll repeat that unusual haul, the original screenplay race is anything but a lock. The unconventional screenplay for The Substance has been winning prizes since its Cannes premiere, and typically, the screenplay category is the one where the Academy would award such an offbeat movie; I think it has one of the bigger categories all but locked, making a screenplay win less of a necessity.
Similarly, A Real Pain just got a shock BAFTA win for Jesse Eisenberg, although since surprisingly missing a Best Picture slot, I'm not anticipating it to regain its early frontrunner status. It feels like Anora has been regaining that momentum in recent weeks, and this is one of the clearest categories where it would benefit.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees; Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown, Ariana Grande – Wicked, Felicity Jones – The Brutalist, Isabella Rossellini – Conclave, Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Perez
Who will win; Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Perez
As tempted as I was to bet the house on Zoe Saldaña losing here, ensuring Emilia Perez would go down as the biggest awards-loser in Oscars history, she has kept on getting the gold as awards bodies have begun to shy away from commemorating the movie around her.
She’s by far the best thing about the movie – although, like this year’s likely Supporting Actor winner, is unquestionably a lead - and singling her out for praise would likely be the only way the Academy could continue to support the movie without annoying its army of detractors. If anything changes at the eleventh hour, then it will likely be the Oscar going to Ariana Grande instead; however, the Academy have a tendency to make singers-turned-actors get a few more roles under their belt instead of awarding them at the first hurdle, and I suspect she’ll follow in her Rain On Me collaborator Lady Gaga’s footsteps in that regard.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees; Yura Borisov – Anora, Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain, Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown, Guy Pearce – The Brutalist, Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Who will win; Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
The year’s most brazen example of category fraud – he's a co-lead! - has meant that Kieran Culkin’s towering performance has easily overshadowed all four of his fellow nominees all season long. This is what happens when a non-supporting performance gets designated to this category, but with Culkin’s admittedly great turn likely to have lost out were it rightfully submitted as a lead, we can at least rest assured that this does ensure a great performance gets its due.
Best Director
Nominees; Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez, Sean Baker – Anora, Brady Corbet – The Brutalist, Carolie Fargeat – The Substance, James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Who will win; Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
One of the many awards season stats you can disregard is that the winner of the Directors Guild of America’s (DGA) Outstanding Feature Film Directing prize has only failed to predict the Oscar winner once in the last decade, when they awarded Sam Mendes for 1917 over eventual winner Bong Joon-ho. This year, Sean Baker won for Anora, and I feel confident saying he’ll join Mendes in that exclusive club of unlucky filmmakers.
Corbet has not only won several high-profile prizes since his film premiered at the Venice Film Festival last September, he also has a captivating narrative as a child actor-turned-auteur (he was the star of Thunderbirds!) who managed to make an American epic on a miniscule budget, using defunct technology. Even if Academy members didn’t have the patience to sit through all three and a half hours – insane, considering the perfectly timed intermission - they’d still likely be eager to respect a singular artistic achievement, not to mention a risky gamble that paid off handsomely.
Best Actress
Nominees; Cynthia Erivo – Wicked, Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pérez, Mikey Madison – Anora, Demi Moore – The Substance, Fernanda Torres – I'm Still Here
Who will win; Demi Moore – The Substance
As much as I’m intrigued by the Fernanda Torres dark horse narrative following her Golden Globe win, her subtle, underplayed performance is the kind the Academy still takes for granted; after being burnt by my Lily Gladstone prediction last year, I won’t make the same mistake predicting a performance like that again anytime soon. Similarly, Mikey Madison’s BAFTA win felt too left-field, too late in the game to help her pull off an upset – even with the Academy’s history of celebrating ingenues, they were typically backed up by a higher quantity of wins throughout the season.
This is why I think Demi Moore is still the likely winner, especially considering the precedent set by Michelle Yeoh and Emma Stone’s wins in the last couple of years for bold, transformative performances in genre films the Oscars wouldn’t have touched as recently as ten years ago. Her turn in The Substance is bolder, ballsier, and riskier than either of those; it would not only cement her comeback, Brendan Fraser-style, but also signal that the Oscars have firmly entered a period of looking further afield for interesting female roles.
Best Actor
Nominees; Adrien Brody – The Brutalist, Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo – Sing Sing, Ralph Fiennes – Conclave, Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Who will win; Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Despite an AI controversy, and Saturday Night Live resurfacing the infamous clip of him introducing Sean Paul in an ill-judged Rastafarian costume for their 50th anniversary special, Adrien Brody has managed to see off his nearest challenger Timothée Chalamet every step of the way this awards season. In a night with several unknowns still on the table, his second Best Actor win feels like it’s been sealed for months.
Best Picture
Nominees; Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
What Will Win; Anora
Anora’s recent comeback as the Best Picture frontrunner came out of nowhere, but over the course of a single weekend it won three crucial bellwether prizes, making up for its losses at higher profile precursors like the Golden Globes. With the supposed frontrunner changing on a near weekly basis - a couple of weeks back, Variety even predicted A Complete Unknown would win; it’ll go home with nothing – it makes sense that we’ve circled back to where we were in September, exhausted by the discourse surrounding every movie that most voters are now sober enough to see a film not having an intimacy co-ordinator isn’t the end of the world.
For what it’s worth, it’s my favourite of the nominees, and would be my favourite winner since Parasite; similarly, it would be the first film to have won the Cannes Palme D’Or and Best Picture since then, and only the fourth in history to pull off both (The Lost Weekend in 1946 and Marty in 1955 being the other two).
FINAL TOTALS:
The Brutalist – 4 (Best Actor, Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score)
Anora – 3 (Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing)
Dune: Part Two -2 (Best Sound, Best Visual Effects)
The Substance – 2 (Best Actress, Best Makeup & Hairstyling)
Wicked – 2 (Best Production Design, Best Costume Design)
Conclave – 1 (Best Adapted Screenplay)
Emilia Perez – 1 (Best Supporting Actress)
Flow – 1 (Best Animated Feature)
A Real Pain – 1 (Best Supporting Actor)
I’m Still Here – 1 (Best International Feature)
Shop this year’s awards nominees
